NEXUS project: exploring profitable, sustainable livestock businesses in an increasingly variable climate

Background

Changes in the climate of eastern Australia have occurred over the past two decades including increasing temperatures and heat waves, and declining rainfall in south eastern Australia, requiring a re-evaluation of livestock production systems. The NEXUS project will explore the connections between profitability, productivity, greenhouse gas mitigation, carbon sequestration and consumer perceptions of livestock businesses in an increasingly variable climate. With funding from Meat & Livestock Australia's Donor Company, University of Melbourne, University of Tasmania and CSIRO, the NEXUS project will run from March 2020 – June 2023. It is a multi-party program of collaboration across the Livestock Productivity Partnership, including the funding organisations, University of Southern Queensland and University of New England.

Project outline

Integrated assessments of seven farm case studies from Tasmania to north Queensland will be conducted to identify systems adaptations that are profitable, environmentally sustainable and targeted towards future market opportunities. A reference group in each region made up of local farmers and consultants will guide the research teams to ensure that the systems and adaptation options examined are relevant and findings are robust.
Adaptation options will explore:

1. Feedbase (e.g. improved legumes, summer active pastures, or deep-rooted forages),
2. Animal management and genetics (e.g. altered management calendars),
3. Business models (e.g. enterprise mix (livestock : crop), alternative markets such as carbon),
4. Technology and infrastructure (e.g. seasonal feedlot, virtual herding, seasonal forecasts), and
5. Landscape management (e.g. raising soil fertility, use of trees on-farm)

The schematic below provides an overview of the project structure.

The research team lead by Dr Brendan Cullen consists of farm system scientists, modellers, economists and social scientists:

Name and institution	Role
Dr Brendan Cullen (UM)	Project leader, farm systems modelling in Vic, NSW.
Prof Richard Eckard (UM)	Leader Mitigation/Sequestration theme
Dr Alexandria Sinnett (UM)	Leader Farm system economics
Prof Bill Malcom (UM)	Farm system economics
Prof Ruth Nettle (UM)	Social research
Dr Marg Ayre (UM)	Social research
Dr Paul Cheng (UM)	Animal science, adaptation options
David Cobon (USQ)	USQ Leader, Farm Systems Modelling
Dr Duc Anh Vo (USQ)	Farm Systems Modelling
Dr Thong Nguyen (USQ)	Farm Systems Modelling
Assoc Prof Matt Harrison (UTas)	UTAS Nexus leader, farm systems modelling
Dr Lydia Turner (UTas)	Social research
Dr Karen Christie (UTas)	Farm Systems Modelling
Peter Ball (UTas)	Producer engagement
Dr Alison Hall (UTas)	Social research
Franco Bilotto (UTas)	Farm Systems Modelling
Dr Di Mayberry (CSIRO)	CSIRO Project leader, farm system modelling
Dr Chris Stokes (CSIRO)	Farm Systems Modelling
Dr Adam Liedloff (CSIRO)	Farm Systems Modelling
Martin Amidy (ANU)	Farm system economics
Dr Lindsey Perry (QDAF)	Producer engagement
Dr Tom Davison (UNE)	LPP Coordinator, transformational adaptation options

Methods and Outcomes

NEXUS will employ an integrated assessment of farm case studies in regions from the North of Queensland to the Midlands of Tasmania to identify systems adaptations that are profitable, environmentally sustainable and targeted towards future market opportunities.

The case study farms are in the following regions:

1. North Queensland (led by CSIRO)
2. Central Queensland (led by University of Southern Queensland)
3. Northern New South Wales (led by University of Melbourne)
4. Northern Victoria (led by University of Melbourne)
5. East Gippsland, Victoria (led by University of Melbourne)
6. North west Tasmania (led by University of Tasmania)
7. Midlands, Tasmania (led by University of Tasmania)

Each case study region will utilise a standardised protocol and be guided by a regional reference group to ensure that the systems and adaptation options examined are relevant and findings are robust. Adaption options investigated in each region will include investigation of feedbase, animal genetics, technology and management options, as well as options to capture value from emerging carbon markets. Combined, the case studies will inform future research and development investment in grazing systems with higher resilience to climate challenges across eastern Australia and will provide a series of farm systems that can be used to either demonstrate or research options to raise profitability in each region.

Protocols

Project partners will, in the initial stages, develop standardised protocols that will be utilised at each site to ensure that consistent approaches and topics across sites are investigated – although the specific topics tested will be adapted to suit regional conditions – and to ensure consistency of project reporting. Protocols will be developed for:

• Social research methodology – The approach will include scoping interviews to understand the regional context for case study farms, developing selection criteria for case study farms and reference group membership (including the national transformational reference group), working with case study farms and reference groups to prioritise and validate modelling adaptation options and themes, as well as explore the human and social dimensions to adaptation and transformation.
• Future climate scenarios - The emphasis will be placed on extreme climate events and sequences. The approach will consider both recent climate trends and climate projections for 2030 and 2050.
• Farm systems analysis - The diversity of farm systems studied across eastern Australia will mean that different modelling tools will be used in the different regions. These models may include the Northern Australian Beef Simulation Analyser (NABSA), the GRAZPLAN pasture and ruminant simulation models, Sustainable Grazing Systems Pasture model and the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM).
• Farm economic performance - A consistent approach to assessing the farm financial performance will be used in this project with standardised economic metrics used across sites. These metrics will be developed and agreed in the first year of the project but will include return on assets (%). Importantly, variation in input costs and prices will be included in via stochastic modelling.
• Mitigation and sequestration - The greenhouse gas emissions (t CO₂ equivalents), emissions intensity (t CO₂ equivalents / t product) will be benchmarked for each site and potential for carbon sequestration and emission reductions will be calculated. Options identified will be based on methods approved under the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF).

Stage one

During stage one, case study farms will be selected then investigated using current management under historical, 2030, and 2050 climate scenarios and using both incremental and variable approaches.

Stage two

Stage two will then investigate adaptation options which aim to improve profitability and resilience under future climate scenarios. Adaptation options explored will have consistent themes across the sites, but with site specificity.
Adaptation options investigated will include:

• Feedbase – such as improved legumes, summer active pastures, deep rooted forages, increased utilisation of drought tolerant forage shrubs or fodder trees and heat tolerant species
• Animal management and genetics – e.g. altered management calendars such as changed joining date, improved reproduction or feed conversion efficiency and heat tolerance
• Business models – enterprise balance (livestock: crops: alternatives e.g. conservation grazing models), species mix, alternative markets (e.g. carbon markets).
• Technology and infrastructure – e.g. increased use of feed storage and use of a seasonal feedlot, virtual herding or seasonal forecasts.
• Landscape management - raising soil fertility, grazing management, the use of trees – including fodder trees - as shade and shelter belts

Regional reference groups

To support investigation of adaptation options the project teams will each draw on the input of a regional reference group. These groups of 6-8 farmers, advisors and researchers will be formed with advice from the relevant SALRC or NABRC committees. These groups will play a key role in ensuring that that the work is regionally relevant by informing the selection of case study farms, defining the adaptation options to be examined, testing modelling assumptions, and providing critical feedback on the project results. An iterative approach will be used incorporating cycles of feedback from the regional groups. Reference groups will include leading farmers and consultants in each region.

Transformational adaption options

The NEXUS will also consider wider, longer-term transformative level adaptation options. These options will be modelled on the case study farms to inform the development of R&D priorities that are longer term and higher risk but with a view to delivering transformational level change to the industry and its capacity to adapt to future climate scenarios.

Adaption recommendations

Identification of priority recommendations for RD&A investments across grazing systems in eastern Australia is a required outcome of each Nexus project. The research team will seek to develop a series of regional recommendations for beef and sheep grazing systems in each of the following categories:

• Recombination of practices and enterprises - Identification of existing resources, techniques, technologies or business models that can be applied from different regions or to greater effect to off-set the short-term effects of climate variability and change.
• Recommendations for incremental R&D - Identify medium term (incremental) priorities to reduce, manage and mitigate the impacts of predicted climate change scenarios.
• R&D priorities focused on transformative long term adaptations - Identify long-term strategic (transformative R&D) priorities that will reduce, manage or mitigate the impacts of predicted climate change scenarios.
• Strategic recommendations for increasing capacity to manage change – Identify the human and social dimensions of adaptive capacity in the red meat industry that are needed to progress adaptation and transformation, including how to support strategic decision making at a farm level.

Further information and related resources

For more information email Brendan Cullen or contact him by phone on +61 03 8344 8028.
Links to project output will be included here when available.