Forewarned is Forearmed Project publications

This five year (2017-2022) national project is undertaking research and forecast product development to deliver a state-of-the-art forecasting service for extreme climate events. The project includes research, product development and extension teams, representing a range of industries, working directly with farmers and farm consultants, to interface the development of climate extremes forecasts with agricultural decisions, develop risk management strategies to proactively prepare for extreme climate and weather events, as well as extending project outputs to farmers and advisors.

Following is bibliographic survey of publications and recordings produced by the FWFA project partners.

2021

R.S. Meyer, A-M Graham, G. Hepworth, & R.J. Eckard (2021). Using milk tanker pickup and weather station data to quantify the impacts of heat stress on milk production in Australia. 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Sydney, NSW, Australia, 5 to 10 December 2021, pp. 148–154. https://mssanz.org.au/modsim2021/papers/B5/meyer.pdf.  

E.-P. Lim, D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, A.G. Marshall, A. King, H. Zhu, H.H. Hendon, C. de Burgh-Day, B. Trewin, M. Griffiths, A. Ramchurn & G. Young (2021). Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Niña. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(6), pp. E1150–E1171. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0112.1.  

E.-P. Lim, H.H. Hendon, A.H. Butler, D.W.J. Thompson, Z.D. Lawrence, A.A. Scaife, T.G. Shepherd, I. Polichtchouk, H. Nakamura, C. Kobayashi, R. Comer, L. Coy, A. Dowdy, R.D. Garreaud, P.A. Newman & G. Wang (2021). The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts. Scientific Reports, 11, 18423. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97690-w.  

E.-P. Lim, H.H. Hendon, L. Shi, C. de Burgh-Day, D. Hudson, A. King, B. Trewin, M. Griffiths & A. Marshall (2021). Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019. Climate Dynamics, 56, pp. 3625–3641 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05661-8.  

R.S. Meyer, A-M. Graham, G. Hepworth & R.J. Eckard (2021). Using milk tanker pickup and weather station data to quantify the impacts of heat stress on milk production in Australia. In Vervoort, R.W., Voinov, A.A., Evans, J.P. and Marshall, L. (eds) MODSIM2021, 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2021, pp. 148–154. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-8-6. https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B5.meyer.  

R.S. Meyer, A. Sinnett, R. Perera, B. Cullen, B. Malcolm & R.J. Eckard (2021). The Potential of Deep Roots to Mitigate Impacts of Heatwaves and Declining Rainfall on Pastures in Southeast Australia. Plants 2021, 10(8), 1641. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants10081641.  

D. Cobon, C. Jarvis, K. Reardon-Smith, L. Guillory, C. Pudmensky, T. Nguyen-Huy, S. Mushtaq & R. Stone (2021). Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program. The Rangeland Journal, 43(3) pp. 87-100. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20074.  

M. Hawcroft, S. Lavender, D. Copsey, S. Milton, J. Rodríguez, W. Tennant, S. Webster & T. Cowan (2021). The Benefits of Ensemble Prediction for Forecasting an Extreme Event: The Queensland Floods of February 2019. Monthly Weather Review, 149(7) pp. 2391-2408. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0330.1.  

H. Nguyen, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, E.-P. Lim. & J.A. Otkin (2021). The 2019 flash droughts in subtropical eastern Australia and their association with large-scale climate drivers. Weather and Climate Extremes, 32, 100321https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100321.  

A.G. Marshall, H.H. Hendon & D. Hudson (2021). Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on multiweek prediction of Australian rainfall extremes using the ACCESS-S1 prediction system. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 71(2), pp. 159-180https://doi.org/10.1071/ES21001.  

C de Burgh-Day & F. Dillon (2021). A hybrid parametrisation for precipitation probability of exceedance data. Bureau Research Report No. 052, pages. 1-19http://www.bom.gov.au/research/publications/researchreports/BRR-052.pdf.  

2020

G. Wang & H. Hendon (2020). Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on wintertime Australian minimum temperatures and Southern Hemisphere circulation. Climate Dynamics, 55, 3087–3099 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05432-x.  

G. Bracho-Mujica, P.T. Hayman, V.O. Sadras, and B. Ostendorf (2020). A method for simulating risk profiles of wheat yield in data-sparse conditions. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 158 , 10, 833-844 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859621000253.  

H. H. Hendon, E.-P. Lim, S. Abhik (2020). Impact of Interannual Ozone Variations on the Downward Coupling of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Warming. JGR Atmospheres, 125 (16) https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032952.  

H. Nguyen, J.A. Otkin, M.C. Wheeler, P. Hope, B. Trewin. & C. Pudmenzky (2020). Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and Its Suitability as a Tool to Monitor Australian Drought. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21 (10), pp. 2309-2324 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0042.1.  

2019

A. King, D. Hudson, E.-P. Lim, A. Marshall, H. Hendon, T. Lane & O. Alves (2019). Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Download here.  

T. Cowan, M.C. Wheeler, O. Alves, S. Narsey, C. de Burgh-Day, M. Griffiths, C. Jarvis, D. H. Cobon & M.K. Hawcroft (2019). Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019. Weather and Climate Extremes, 26, December 2019 100232 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232.  

E.-P. Lim, H.H. Hendon, G. Boschat, D. Hudson, D.W.J. thompson, A.J. Dowdy & J.M. Arblaster (2019). Australian hot and dry extremes induced by weakenings of the stratospheric polar vortex. Nature Geoscience, 12, pp. 896–901 (2019) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0456-x.  

H.H. Hendon, D.W.J. Thompson, E.-P. Lim, A.H. Butler, P.A. Newman, L. Coy, A.A. Scaife, I. Polichtchouk, R.D. Garreaud, T.G. Shepherd & H. Nakamura. (2019). Rare forecasted climate event under way in the Southern Hemisphere. Nature Correspondence, 23 September 2019. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02858-0.  

2018

B.K. Henry, R.J. Eckard & K.A. Beauchemin (2018). Review: Adaptation of ruminant livestock production systems to climate changes. Animal, 12 (2), pp. s445-s456 https://doi.org/10.1017/S1751731118001301.  

R.S. Meyer, A-M. Graham & R.J. Eckard (2018). Heat stress impacts and responses in livestock production. In Hermesch, S. and Dominik, S. (eds) Breeding Focus 2018 – Reducing Heat Stress, 2018, pp. 41–57. ISBN: 978-1-921597-78-7. http://agbu.une.edu.au/PDFs/BFW2018/BF_2018_chapter4_Meyer.pdf.  


Presentations and webinar recordings

2022



Outlooks and new features on the Bureau of Meteorology's website 2022.

This webinar explores the final three of five new tools developed and released as part of the Forewarned is Forearmed project, a partnership of government, research and industry sectors funded through the Australian Government's Rural R&D For-Profit Program. The new features respond to the growing need for information around unseasonal and extreme weather and climate events to build climate resilience and support better-informed decision making. Dale Grey (Agronomist advisor and climate specialist for Agriculture Victoria) joins the Bureau of Meteorology's Dr Andrew Watkins (Head of Long Range Forecasts) and Avijeet Ramchurn (Senior Climatologist) to present and answer questions about the Forewarned is Forearmed outlooks and the new features. Facilitated by Russell Pattinson, National Coordinator of the Forewarned is Forearmed (FWFA) the session was recorded live on 14/07/2022.

2021



Outlooks and new features on the Bureau of Meteorology's website.

The first two tools released from the FWFA project enable users to view the chance of unseasonal and extreme temperature and rainfall for the weeks, months, and seasons ahead in their location. The Bureau's Head of Operational Climate Services, Dr Andrew Watkins, is joined by Senior Climatologist Avijeet Ramchurn and Agriculture Victoria's Agronomist Advisor, Dale Grey, to present and answer questions about the new products. The session was facilitated by Prof Richard Eckard, Director of the Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre (PICCC), University of Melbourne and recorded live on 08/11/2021.
A pdf of the PowerPoint slide pack is available here.

2020


Photographer:
Forewarned is Forearmed Project update, CoP, extension and partner panel.

Kate Finger (BCG), Dale Grey and Graeme Anderson (AgVic) and Russell Pattinson (National Coordinator FWFA) provide an overview of the project's Work Package 4 activities: CoP and extension with an update of the overall FWFA project from Russell Pattinson. Following the short presentations, the Q&A panel includes discussion with FWFA Partners from Work Packages 1&2, Dr's Debbie Hudson and Harry Hendon (BoM) and Work Package 3, Dr Peter Hayman (SARDI) and Prof Richard Eckard (UoM) in this live webinar recording of 10/12/2020.


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Managing extreme events in the southern Australian grazing industries.

Richard Eckard, Professor of Livestock Systems and Director of the Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre, University of Melbourne explores case study work undertaken as part of the FWFA project to consider industry reference group identified extreme event scenarios in a southern grazing system in this live webinar recording of 20/10/2020.


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Understanding forecasts and on-farm management of climate and variability.

Graeme Anderson, Climate Specialist, Agriculture Victoria shares insights from his multiple engagements (via FWFA and related projects) with rural communities along the modern forecast output spectrum on understanding weather forecasts, seasonal outlooks & climate change projections in this live webinar recording of 23/9/2020.


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Climate risk in the grains and wine grape industry – frameworks to support the discussion between climate science and growers?

Dr Peter Hayman Principal Scientist, Climate Applications, South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), leader of FWFA Work Package 3 Grains and Wine Grapes industries project component and Barry Mudge, farmer and private consultant from Port Germein, SA, give an overview of Decision Analysis frameworks linking improvements in forecasts to on-farm decision making. Barry Mudge provides examples of his own decision making on a grain farm and Peter Hayman discusses a crop protection example from viticulture in this live webinar recording of 20/8/2020.


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Past rainfall changes over Australia and implications for agriculture

Dr Katharina Waha, Senior Research Scientist at CSIRO, leader of the MCV funded research project presents findings on past and future rainfall changes over Australia and implications for agriculture in this live webinar recording of 28/7/2020.


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Overview of the Managing Climate Variability R&D Program and Extreme Events Forecasting

Doug McNicholl, Sustainability Manager, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) provides an overview of the long-standing cross-sectoral MCV Program and introduces the Forewarned is Forearmed (FWFA) Rural R&D for Profit Project in this live webinar recording of 25/6/2020.


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Forewarned is Forearmed Project - Forecasting - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Drs Debbie Hudson and Harry Hendon from the Bureau of Meteorology update progress across Work Packages 1 - "User needs and forecast development" and 2 - "Extreme forecasts development and delivery" in this live webinar recording of 17/2/2020.




This project is supported by funding from the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry as part of its Rural R&D for Profit program in partnership with rural Research and Development Corporations, commercial companies, state departments and universities. Meat &Livestock Australia (MLA) is responsible for the overall management of the project.