Forewarned is Forearmed Project publications

This five year (2017-2022) national project undertook research and forecast product development to deliver a state-of-the-art forecasting service for extreme climate events. The project included research, product development and extension teams, representing a range of industries, working directly with farmers and farm consultants, to interface the development of climate extremes forecasts with agricultural decisions, develop risk management strategies to proactively prepare for extreme climate and weather events, as well as extending project outputs to farmers and advisors.

Following is a listing of publications produced by the FWFA project partners.


Peer reviewed

A. Sinnett, B. Malcolm, A. Ekonomou, G. Ward, A-M Graham, R. Eckard (2023) Evaluation of the least cost option to manage pastures in a wet winter in south-eastern Australia. Australian Farm Business Management Journal, 2023, Volume 20, Paper 1.   h

Cowan, T., M.C Wheeler, Sharmila Sur, Narsey and C. de Burgh-Day (202X) Forecasting northern Australian wet season burst activity in a seasonal forecast system' - a paper discussing the hindcast skill of ACCESS-S1 to simulate wet season burst activity. In prep

Cowan, T., M. C. Wheeler, O. Alves, D. Hudson, C. de Burgh-Day, M. Griffiths, C. Jarvis, D. H. Cobon, and M. Hendon Sub-seasonal prediction of the extreme rainfall that caused the northern Queensland floods in February 2019 Part of a series of S2S case studies (submitted to organiser of studies)


Beyond the Bale, March 2023 Dairy Case Study - FWFA - Wayne ClarkeBeyond the Bale, Issue 94, March 2023, Profit from Wool Innovation p.24 Click here to view

Case Study: Dairy Case Study - FWFA - Wayne Clarke Click here to view

Case Study: Grain Case Study - FWFA - Barry Mudge Click here to view

Case Study: Livestock Case Study - FWFA - Jenny & Paul O'Sullivan Click here to view


Peer reviewed

T. Cowan, M. Wheeler, C. de Burgh-Day, H. Nguyen and D. Cobon (2022). Multi-week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019. Scientific Report 12: 5907  


Climate Kelpie Blog, 29 March 2022 Better forecasts with the move from ACCESS-S1 to ACCESS-S2. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 29 March 2022 Farming with more than intuition. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 29 March 2022 Part 1: A framework to explore climate risky decisions. Hayman P.T & Mudge B. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 24 June 2022 New Decile Bar Tool a Winner for Producers. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 24 June 2022 Insights into Barriers and Bridges to the producer adoption of Seasonal Climate Forecasts. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 27 June 2022 Forecast Tools Specific for Agriculture. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 13 October 2022 Part 2: Budgeting across deciles offers farmers insights into risky decisions. Hayman P.T & Mudge B. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 14 October 2022 Forewarned is Forearmed tools help dairy farmer Wayne Clarke make decisions. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 18 November 2022 MCV and FWFA instrumental in putting climate forecasting at farmers’ fingertips. Click here to view

CRDC Spotlight, Spring Edition 2022 Forewarned is forearmed: supporting growers to proactively manage the impacts of extreme climate events. Spotlight on Cotton R&D Spring 2022 p.16 Click here to view

Mallee Farmer, Autumn Edition 2022 New Climate Extremes forecasts now available thanks to Forewarned is Forearmed project. Mallee Farmer Magazine Edition 21, Autumn 2022 p.30 Click here to view

Meat & Livestock Australia News, 7 July 2022 Access the latest BOM Forewarned is Forearmed weather tools. Click here to view

Sugar Research Australia, 8 July 2022 Access the latest BOM Forewarned is Forearmed weather tools. Click here to view

Wine Australia News, June 2022 Planning for extreme weather events set to get easier. Click here to view


Peer reviewed

Cobon D., Jarvis C., Reardon-Smith K., Guillory L., Pudmensky C., Nguyen-Huy T., Mushtaq S. & Stone R. (2021). Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program. The Rangeland Journal, 43(3) pp. 87-100.  

de Burgh-Day C. & Dillon F. (2021). A hybrid parametrisation for precipitation probability of exceedance data. Bureau Research Report No. 052, pages. 1-19 .  

Hawcroft M., Lavender S., Copsey D., Milton S., Rodríguez J., Tennant W., Webster S. & Cowan T. (2021). The Benefits of Ensemble Prediction for Forecasting an Extreme Event: The Queensland Floods of February 2019. Monthly Weather Review, 149(7) pp. 2391-2408.  

Lake L., Chauhan Y.S., Ojeda J.J., Cossani C.M., Thomas D., Hayman P.T. & Sadras .V.O (2021) Modelling phenology to probe for trade-offs between frost and heat risk in lentil and faba bean. European Journal of Agronomy. Volume 122, 2021, 126154, ISSN 1161-0301,  

Lim E.-P., Hendon H.H., Butler A.H., Thompson D.W.J., Lawrence Z.D., Scaife A.A., Shepherd T.G., Polichtchouk I., Nakamura H., Kobayashi C., Comer R., Coy L., Dowdy A., Garreaud R.D., Newman P.A. & Wang G. (2021). The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts. Scientific Reports, 11, 18423.  

Lim E.-P., Hendon H.H., Shi L., de Burgh-Day C., Hudson D., King A., Trewin B., Griffiths M. & Marshall A. (2021). Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019. Climate Dynamics, 56, pp. 3625–3641   

Lim E.-P., Hudson D., Wheeler M.C., Marshall A.G., King A., Zhu H., Hendon H.H., de Burgh-Day C., Trewin B., Griffiths M., Ramchurn A. & Young G. (2021). Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Niña. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(6), pp. E1150–E1171.  

Mariano Cossani C., Thomas D., Hayman P.T. & Sadras V.O. (2021). Modelling the interaction between nitrogen and temperature during the critical period of yield in wheat. Australian Agronomy Conference Toowoomba Qld September 2022. .  

Marshall A.G., Hendon H.H. & Hudson D. (2021). Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on multiweek prediction of Australian rainfall extremes using the ACCESS-S1 prediction system. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 71(2), pp. 159-180.  

Meyer R.S., Graham A-M., Hepworth G. & Eckard R.J. (2021). Using milk tanker pickup and weather station data to quantify the impacts of heat stress on milk production in Australia. In Vervoort, R.W., Voinov, A.A., Evans, J.P. and Marshall, L. (eds) MODSIM2021, 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2021, pp. 148–154. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-8-6.  

Meyer R.S., Sinnett A., Perera R., Cullen B., Malcolm B. & Eckard R.J. (2021). The Potential of Deep Roots to Mitigate Impacts of Heatwaves and Declining Rainfall on Pastures in Southeast Australia. Plants 2021, 10(8), 1641.  

Nguyen H., Wheeler M.C., Hendon H.H., Lim E.-P. & Otkin J.A. (2021). The 2019 flash droughts in subtropical eastern Australia and their association with large-scale climate drivers. Weather and Climate Extremes, 32, 100321  

Porker K., Kupke B., Hunt J., Ware A., Thomas D., Cooper B. & Hayman P.T (2021). Apical pruning to delay flowering time and increase yield in early sown spring wheat. Australian Agronomy Conference Toowoomba Qld September 2022. .  


Cane Connection, Summer 2021 Forecasting Extreme Climate Events – New tools help growers to prepare. pp. 26-27 Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 6 April 2021 New forecasting tools aid Red Witchweed cull. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 20 September 2021 Climate tools developed with farmers for farmers. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 15 December 2021 Forecasting extreme climate events – new tools help growers to prepare. Click here to view

Hayman P.T. & Hudson D. 4 May 2021 Forewarned is forearmed – Exploring the value of new forecast products from the BOM to enable more informed decisions on profit and risk on grain farms. GRDC Update Paper Click here to view

Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre (PICCC) Forewarned is forearmed – extremes forecast products overview and pointer page. Click here to view


Peer reviewed

Bracho-Mujica G., Hayman P.T., Sadras V.O. & Ostendorf B. (2020). A method for simulating risk profiles of wheat yield in data-sparse conditions. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 158 , 10, 833-844  

Hendon H.H., Lim E.-P., Abhik S. (2020). Impact of Interannual Ozone Variations on the Downward Coupling of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Warming. JGR Atmospheres, 125 (16)  

Nguyen H., Otkin J.A., Wheeler M.C., Hope P., Trewin B. & Pudmenzky C. (2020). Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and Its Suitability as a Tool to Monitor Australian Drought. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21 (10), pp. 2309-2324  

Wang G. & Hendon H. (2020). Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on wintertime Australian minimum temperatures and Southern Hemisphere circulation. Climate Dynamics, 55, 3087–3099  


Beef Central Media, July 2020 New Extreme Weather Forecasting Tools on the Way. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 27 July 2020 ‘You got to know when to hold ‘em’ – managing livestock in extended drought'. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 7 December 2020 Finding the window of opportunity with new forecasting products. Click here to view

Farm Weekly - Beef, 2 March 2020 Livestock operations test extreme forecast prototypes. Click here to view


Peer reviewed

Cowan T., Wheeler M.C., Alves O., Narsey S., de Burgh-Day C., Griffiths M., Jarvis C., Cobon D. H. & Hawcroft M.K (2019). Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019. Weather and Climate Extremes, 26, December 2019 100232  

Hendon H.H., Thompson D.W.J., Lim E.-P., Butler A.H., Newman P.A., Coy L., Scaife A.A., Polichtchouk I., Garreaud R.D., Shepherd T.G. & Nakamura H. (2019). Rare forecasted climate event under way in the Southern Hemisphere. Nature Correspondence, 23 September 2019.  

King A., Hudson D., Lim E.-P., Marshall A., Hendon H., Lane T. & Alves O. (2019). Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Download here.  

Lim E.-P., Hendon H.H., Boschat G., Hudson D., Thompson D.W.J., Dowdy A.J. & Arblaster J.M. (2019). Australian hot and dry extremes induced by weakenings of the stratospheric polar vortex. Nature Geoscience, 12, pp. 896–901 (2019)  


Climate Kelpie Blog, 4 March 2019 New understanding of the drivers behind hot and dry conditions over Australia’s north-east. Click here to view

Climate Kelpie Blog, 8 November 2019 Extreme event early-warning forecasts tested under local spotlight. Click here to view

Hendon H.H., Watkins A., Lim E.-P. & Young G. (2019). The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here’s what it means for Australia. The Conversation, 6 September 2019. Click here to view

McNicholl D. (2019). Tools to manage climate risk. MLA Feedback Magazine, Dec 2019/Jan 2020, p 23. Click here to view


Peer reviewed

Henry B.K., Eckard R.J. & Beauchemin K.A. (2018). Review: Adaptation of ruminant livestock production systems to climate changes. Animal, 12 (2), pp. s445-s456  

Meyer R.S., Graham A-M. & Eckard R.J. (2018). Heat stress impacts and responses in livestock production. In Hermesch, S. and Dominik, S. (eds) Breeding Focus 2018 – Reducing Heat Stress, 2018, pp. 41–57. ISBN: 978-1-921597-78-7.  


Dairy Australia (2018). Preliminary heat stress analysis in Fact Sheet. Note: no attribution as prior to signing of contract but it is research directly related to the FWFA project Click here to view


This project was supported by funding from the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry as part of its Rural R&D for Profit program in partnership with rural Research and Development Corporations, commercial companies, state departments and universities. Meat &Livestock Australia (MLA) was responsible for the overall management of the project.

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